DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/27 11:37
Livestock Contracts Finally Find Support Midday Monday
Strong trader support drives all three of the livestock markets higher
DTN Livestock Analyst
The livestock complex is seeing tremendous support through Monday's market.
As long as the corn complex doesn't trade much higher, the three livestock
markets should be able to sustain these gains through closing. If the live
cattle market continues to see support from traders and support in higher boxed
beef prices, then the cash cattle market could even trade higher too. May corn
is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is up 206.84 points.
The live cattle complex is seeing the same support as the feeder cattle and
lean hog contracts with the market trading substantially higher. It's
refreshing to see the spot June contract trading above its 100-day moving
average and to be within a safe trading range of even taking on the market's
40-day moving average. April live cattle are up $1.45 at $164.45, June live
cattle are up $1.85 at $158.45 and August live cattle are up $1.75 at $158.17.
If the market keeps this upward momentum, the cash cattle market should have no
issue to trading higher this week.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 84,955 head. Of that, 75%
(64,049 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 25%
(20,906 head) were committed for the deferred delivery. The bulk of last week's
trade took place on Wednesday with a little light scattered trade reported on
Thursday. Northern dressed deals ranged from $262 to $268, mostly $264 to $265,
steady to $1 higher than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska.
Southern live trade was at $162 to mostly $163, $1 lower than the previous
week's weighted averages.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.28 ($280.16) and select up $0.16
($269.36) with a movement of 33 loads (18.66 loads of choice, 3.84 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 10.07 loads of ground beef).
The feeder cattle complex caught wind of the moisture accumulated this past
weekend in parts of Montana and Wyoming and has traded aggressively higher ever
since. Even the onset of $0.03 to $0.09 higher corn prices isn't affecting the
market thus far, as most of its contracts are trading $1.00 to $3.00 higher. It
is interesting to note that most of the market's major gains are being seen in
the furthest deferred months or the later half of 2023. Supplies of feeder
cattle are expected to become incredibly thin in the second half of the year
and the futures complex is aware of that reality. April feeders are up $2.72 at
$197.52, May feeders are up $3.70 at $201.27 and August feeders are up $2.90 at
The lean hog complex has run into the new week with momentum and vigor that
the complex hasn't seen in a long time. April lean hogs are up $2.25 at $79.45,
June lean hogs are up $2.37 at $93.80 and July lean hogs are up $2.22 at
$95.80. Corn prices are trending higher, which affects hog feeder's margins,
but as long as the hog complex can stay ahead of the corn market's momentum and
see support in Monday afternoon's pork cutout values, then the complex should
be able to keep with its upward run.
The projected lean hog index for March 24 are down $0.42 at $76.57, and the
actual index for March 23 is down $0.40 at $76.99. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.15 with a weighted average of $76.03,
ranging from $69.00 to $77.00 on 5,080 head and a five-day rolling average of
$76.54. Pork cutouts total 156.85 loads with 140.09 loads of pork cuts and
16.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.42, $85.47.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached firstname.lastname@example.org
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